Raiders vs Panthers – Week 1 2020
LV
CAR
LV
AWAY
34@30
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 34, Carolina Panthers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers.
Model confidence: LV 57%Our line: LV -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
| SOURCE | LV | CAR | LV WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -124 | +134 | — |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 7:59 PM ET.
RESULT Won · +$0.65
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
46.5% (11)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 2.2. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CAR
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 2.2. The market has LV at -3.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 34, CAR 30. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -3.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 36, LV 22 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: LV -0.085 against CAR -0.073.
