2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ CAR – Week 1 2020
LV
CAR
LV
AWAY
34@30
LV +4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 57%Projected margin: -2.9
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 2.9. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -124 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3SEASON PPR
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@LVW3 2024 | CAR 36, LV 22 | LV | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES