LV @ CAR – Week 1 2020
LV
CAR
LV
AWAY
34@30
LV BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: LV 57%Our line: LV -2.2
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-130
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.045Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.077
46.5%Offense success %45.0%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 2.2. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -124 | +134 |
| Our fair price | -130 | +130 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
56%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6 SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs1065 yd · 12 TD
Devontae Booker423 yd · 3 TD
Derek Carr140 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
Nelson Agholor48 rec · 896 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 2.2. The market has LV at -3.0.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 36, LV 22 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: LV -0.085 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
