SEA @ ATL – Week 1 2020
SEA
ATL
SEA
AWAY
38@25
SEA BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 51%Our line: ATL -0.3
ATL
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.3
OUR LINE
-104
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.047Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.087Offense EPA / play+0.021
+0.040Defense EPA / play+0.063
48.2%Offense success %43.2%
45.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +102 | -112 |
| Our fair price | +104 | -104 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
52%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SEA
Russell Wilson
QB
359.8 SEASON PPR
DK Metcalf
WR
271.3 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
265.4 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
Tyler Lockett100 rec · 1054 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW14 2025 | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ATLW7 2024 | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL | L |
| ATL@SEAW3 2022 | ATL 27, SEA 23 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 0.3. The market has ATL at -1.0.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 37, ATL 9 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.047 against ATL -0.042.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
