Seahawks vs Falcons – Week 1 2020
SEA
ATL
SEA
AWAY
38@25
SEA BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 38, Atlanta Falcons 25.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Seahawks, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 51%Our line: ATL -0.3
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -0.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
ATL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
52%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | SEA | ATL | ATL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +102 | -112 | 51.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.047Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.087 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
+0.040 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
48.2% (6)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but SEA won. Projected margin was 0.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson4212 yd · 40 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Chris Carson681 yd · 5 TD
Russell Wilson513 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde356 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
DK Metcalf83 rec · 1303 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@ATLW14 2025 | SEA 37, ATL 9 | SEA | W |
| SEA@ATLW7 2024 | SEA 34, ATL 14 | ATL | L |
| ATL@SEAW3 2022 | ATL 27, SEA 23 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 0.3. The market has ATL at -1.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 38, ATL 25. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 37, ATL 9 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.047 against ATL -0.042.
