Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 1 2020
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
11@21
NE BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 11, New England Patriots 21.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Dolphins, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
75%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
| SOURCE | MIA | NE | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +278 | -327 | 75.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.004 (21)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.071 (22)
46.0% (13)Offense success %46.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 10. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NE by 4.3. The market has NE at -7.5.
New England Patriots won, MIA 11, NE 21. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -7.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 1, the Miami Dolphins were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against NE -0.076.
