MIA @ NE – Week 1 2020
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
11@21
NE BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 1
2020 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: NE 63%Our line: NE -4.3
NE
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.076
+0.007Offense EPA / play-0.004
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.071
46.0%Offense success %46.1%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 10. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +278 | -327 |
| Our fair price | +167 | -167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 63% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NE by 4.3. The market has NE at -7.5.
Week 1 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against NE -0.076.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
