NE @ MIA – Week 2 2025
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
33@27
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 67%Our line: MIA -6.1
MIA
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.1
OUR LINE
-206
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.158Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.047Defense EPA / play+0.088
48.4%Offense success %41.9%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NE won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 12.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 |
| Our fair price | +206 | -206 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0 SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3 SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
D.Maye4394 yd · 31 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
T.Henderson911 yd · 9 TD
R.Stevenson603 yd · 7 TD
D.Maye450 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
S.Diggs85 rec · 1013 yd · 4 TD
H.Henry60 rec · 768 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.1. The market has MIA at -1.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
