Patriots vs Dolphins – Week 2 2025
NE
MIA
NE
AWAY
33@27
NE BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 33, Miami Dolphins 27.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Patriots, 6 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 67%Our line: MIA -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
MIA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
| SOURCE | NE | MIA | MIA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +105 | -125 | 53.4% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.017 (22)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (26)
48.4% (3)Offense success %41.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but NE won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 12.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
89°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW2 2023 | MIA 24, NE 17 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 6.1. The market has MIA at -1.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 33, MIA 27. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -1.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 2, the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against MIA -0.105.
