2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ HOU – Week 2 2025
TB
HOU
TB
AWAY
20@19
TB +1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TB 69%Projected margin: -4.0
TB
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 4.0. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 3.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@HOUW9 2023 | TB 37, HOU 39 | HOU | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES