Buccaneers vs Texans – Week 9 2023
TB
HOU
TB
AWAY
37@39
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37, Houston Texans 39.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 50%Our line: HOU +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
39.6% (27)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 0.0. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.0. The market has HOU at -2.5.
Houston Texans won, TB 37, HOU 39. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -2.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 5.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 20, HOU 19 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: TB +0.007 against HOU +0.014.
