2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ HOU – Week 9 2023
TB
HOU
TB
AWAY
37@39
HOU +2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 50%Projected margin: 0.6
HOU
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
0.6
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 0.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@HOUW2 2025 | TB 20, HOU 19 | TB | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES