Colts vs Panthers – Week 9 2023
IND
CAR
IND
AWAY
27@13
IND BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 27, Carolina Panthers 13.
Going in, our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 4 Panthers.
Model confidence: CAR 59%Our line: CAR -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CAR +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CAR -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CAR · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.035 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
-0.017 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
40.8% (24)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but IND won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 17.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CAR
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 3.0. The market has CAR at +1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 27, CAR 13. Our model had favored Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Carolina Panthers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Carolina Panthers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 9, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against CAR -0.200.
