IND @ CAR – Week 9 2023
IND
CAR
IND
AWAY
27@13
IND BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: CAR 59%Our line: CAR -3.0
CAR
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.019Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.035Offense EPA / play-0.177
-0.017Defense EPA / play+0.023
40.8%Offense success %37.6%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CAR B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CAR but IND won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 17.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CAR +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+13%
Both figures are for CAR. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
252.2 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
196.2 SEASON PPR
Zack Moss
RB
169.6 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Gardner Minshew3305 yd · 15 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Zack Moss794 yd · 5 TD
Jonathan Taylor741 yd · 7 TD
Trey Sermon160 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman109 rec · 1152 yd · 4 TD
Josh Downs68 rec · 771 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Carolina Panthers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CAR by 3.0. The market has CAR at +1.5.
The model projects 45.8 combined points. The market total is 45.0.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.019 against CAR -0.200.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
