2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ KC – Week 9 2023
MIA
KC
MIA
AWAY
14@21
KC +7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 68%Projected margin: 4.4
KC
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -115 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@MIAW14 2020 | KC 33, MIA 27 | KC | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES