Dolphins vs Chiefs – Week 9 2023
MIA
KC
MIA
AWAY
14@21
KC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 14, Kansas City Chiefs 21.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 68%Our line: KC -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.107
+0.097 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
-0.039 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
47.2% (5)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 6.2. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@MIAW3 2026 | KC 24, MIA 10 | KC | W |
| KC@MIAW14 2020 | KC 33, MIA 27 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.2. The market has KC at -1.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, MIA 14, KC 21. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -1.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 5.3 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 24, MIA 10 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against KC +0.107.
