Bears vs Saints – Week 9 2023
CHI
NO
CHI
AWAY
17@24
NO BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 17, New Orleans Saints 24.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bears, 1 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 72%Our line: NO -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -9.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.007Net EPA / play+0.086
-0.049 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.014 (13)
-0.042 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (5)
41.8% (18)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 7.8. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
No noteworthy trends
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@CHIW7 2025 | NO 14, CHI 26 | CHI | W |
| NO@CHIW8 2020 | NO 26, CHI 23 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project NO by 7.8. The market has NO at -9.0.
New Orleans Saints won, CHI 17, NO 24. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -9.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 9.0 points.
In Week 9, the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 4.4 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NO 14, CHI 26 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: CHI -0.007 against NO +0.086.
