Cowboys vs Eagles – Week 9 2023
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
23@28
PHI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 23, Philadelphia Eagles 28.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 64%Our line: PHI -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.220Net EPA / play+0.005
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
47.4% (3)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 4.8. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 4.8. The market has PHI at -3.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, DAL 23, PHI 28. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 9, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 1.4 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against PHI +0.005.
