Giants vs Raiders – Week 9 2023
NYG
LV
NYG
AWAY
6@30
LV BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 6, Las Vegas Raiders 30.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants, 4 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 66%Our line: LV -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.155Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.174 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.097 (25)
-0.019 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
37.9% (30)Offense success %41.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 24. Off by 18.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
223.2 SEASON PPR
Darius Slayton
WR
151.0 SEASON PPR
133.2 SEASON PPR
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LVW17 2025 | NYG 34, LV 10 | NYG | W |
| LV@NYGW9 2021 | LV 16, NYG 23 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 5.5. The market has LV at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, NYG 6, LV 30. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 9, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 5.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 34, LV 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: NYG -0.155 against LV -0.037.
