MIN @ ATL – Week 9 2023
MIN
ATL
MIN
AWAY
31@28
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.4
OUR LINE
-169
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.041Offense EPA / play-0.099
-0.018Defense EPA / play-0.059
42.4%Offense success %41.1%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | -169 | +169 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
37%
DIFFERENCE
+26%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3 SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
202.2 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson68 rec · 1074 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson95 rec · 960 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| ATL@MINW6 2020 | ATL 40, MIN 23 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.4. The market has MIN at +3.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, MIN 6 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against ATL -0.040.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
