Vikings vs Falcons – Week 9 2023
MIN
ATL
MIN
AWAY
31@28
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 31, Atlanta Falcons 28.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 3 Falcons.
Model confidence: MIN 63%Our line: MIN -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -4.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.040
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
42.4% (13)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW2 2025 | ATL 22, MIN 6 | MIN | L |
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| ATL@MINW6 2020 | ATL 40, MIN 23 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs ATL
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 4.4. The market has MIN at +3.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 31, ATL 28. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 9, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 7.6 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 22, MIN 6 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.023 against ATL -0.040.
