Commanders vs Patriots – Week 9 2023
WAS
NE
WAS
AWAY
20@17
WAS BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 20, New England Patriots 17.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Commanders, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.190Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
41.0% (21)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but WAS won. Projected margin was 3.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 3.1. The market has NE at -2.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 20, NE 17. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New England Patriots: WAS -0.190 against NE -0.136.
