NFC East · #28 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Washington Commanders
FOR 22-14 (61%)VS 43-21 (67%)ATS 19-18 (51%)356–451 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
@
Philadelphia EaglesSUN 4:25 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →@Philadelphia EaglesKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISRanked #28 in the NFL by net EPA per play, bottom 5 in the league.
Net EPA dropped -0.265 from 2024, a notable regression.
Run-first approach, passes on just 51.4% of plays.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 85.0% of red zone trips.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL-0.137
NET EPA/PLAY
+0.005
OFF EPA/PLAY
+0.142
DEF EPA/PLAY
-0.008
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.019
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.079
+0.090
-0.027
+0.032
-0.111
+0.002
+0.066
-0.109
+0.024
-0.003
-0.050
-0.125
-0.089
+0.106
-0.099
-0.158
+0.018
+0.035
-0.033
-0.095
-0.239
+0.023
-0.124
-0.003
-0.190
+0.128
-0.137
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.137 | +0.005 | +0.142 | 356 | 451 |
| 2024 | +0.128 | +0.139 | +0.011 | 485 | 391 |
| 2023 | -0.190 | -0.106 | +0.085 | 329 | 518 |
| 2022 | -0.003 | -0.078 | -0.075 | 321 | 343 |
| 2021 | -0.124 | -0.057 | +0.067 | 335 | 434 |
| 2020 | +0.023 | -0.067 | -0.091 | 335 | 329 |
| 2019 | -0.239 | -0.142 | +0.097 | 266 | 435 |
| 2018 | -0.095 | -0.071 | +0.024 | 281 | 359 |
| 2017 | -0.033 | -0.065 | -0.032 | 342 | 388 |
| 2016 | +0.035 | +0.110 | +0.075 | 396 | 383 |
| 2015 | +0.018 | +0.032 | +0.014 | 388 | 379 |
| 2014 | -0.158 | -0.073 | +0.085 | 301 | 438 |
| 2013 | -0.099 | -0.049 | +0.049 | 334 | 478 |
| 2012 | +0.106 | +0.145 | +0.039 | 436 | 388 |
| 2011 | -0.089 | -0.062 | +0.027 | 288 | 367 |
| 2010 | -0.125 | -0.086 | +0.039 | 302 | 377 |
| 2009 | -0.050 | -0.050 | -0.000 | 266 | 336 |
| 2008 | -0.003 | -0.037 | -0.035 | 265 | 296 |
| 2007 | +0.024 | -0.042 | -0.066 | 334 | 310 |
| 2006 | -0.109 | -0.005 | +0.103 | 307 | 376 |
| 2005 | +0.066 | +0.006 | -0.060 | 359 | 293 |
| 2004 | +0.002 | -0.129 | -0.131 | 240 | 265 |
| 2003 | -0.111 | -0.071 | +0.040 | 287 | 372 |
| 2002 | +0.032 | -0.062 | -0.094 | 307 | 365 |
| 2001 | -0.027 | -0.105 | -0.078 | 256 | 303 |
| 2000 | +0.090 | -0.026 | -0.116 | 281 | 269 |
| 1999 | +0.079 | +0.076 | -0.002 | 443 | 377 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
51.4%
EARLY DOWN PASS
45.6%
SHOTGUN RATE
87.9%
NO HUDDLE
61.7%
4TH DOWN GO
24.8%
4TH DOWN CONV
61.5%
3RD DOWN CONV
38.0%
RED ZONE TD
85.0%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
82.3%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.061
PTS/DRIVE
1.7
PLAYS/DRIVE
6.2
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 51.4% | 24.8% | 38.0% | 85.0% | 1.7 | -0.091 |
| 2024 | 52.8% | 20.7% | 45.4% | 82.6% | 2.2 | +0.072 |
| 2023 | 66.3% | 23.2% | 35.5% | 95.0% | 1.4 | +0.041 |
| 2022 | 53.5% | 18.3% | 35.4% | 69.6% | 1.2 | +0.052 |
| 2021 | 55.7% | 25.4% | 38.8% | 81.8% | 1.4 | -0.012 |
| 2020 | 62.8% | 14.6% | 39.6% | 69.6% | 1.3 | +0.108 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M.Mariota | QB | 10 | 1,695 | 297 | — | 11 | 125.5 |
| J.Croskey-Merritt | RB | 17 | — | 805 | 68 | 8 | 140.3 |
| C.Rodriguez | RB | 12 | — | 500 | 30 | 6 | 92.0 |
| D.Samuel | WR | 16 | — | 75 | 727 | 6 | 188.2 |
| T.McLaurin | WR | 10 | — | — | 582 | 3 | 114.2 |
| L.McCaffrey | WR | 9 | — | — | 203 | 3 | 51.3 |
| Z.Ertz | TE | 13 | — | — | 504 | 4 | 126.4 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
20-30
40% WIN RATE
AWAY
23-27
46% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS22-14
PICKS FOR
61%
FOR ACCURACY
43-21
PICKS AGAINST
67%
AGAINST ACCURACY
100
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK WAS · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
11-10
52.4%
AWAY
8-8
50.0%
FAVORITE
14-15
48.3%
UNDERDOG
5-3
62.5%
A TIER
2-2
B TIER
10-12
C TIER
6-4
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR WAS · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | DAL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | WAS @ JAXSUN 1:00 PM | JAX | FCST | 77% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | WAS @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | ATL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | HOU @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | FCST | 73% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | WAS @ TENSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | WAS @ ARISUN 4:25 PM | WAS | FCST | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | CIN @ WASMON 8:15 PM | CIN | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W10 | WAS @ NYGTHU 8:15 PM | NYG | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | LAR @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | FCST | 72% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | PHI @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | PHI | FCST | 66% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | WAS @ SFMON 8:15 PM | SF | A+ | 74% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | NYG @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | IND @ WASSUN 9:30 AM | WAS | C | 59% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | SEA @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | A | 75% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | WAS @ DALSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | B | 64% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | WAS @ PHISUN 4:25 PM | PHI | A | 71% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | WAS @ PHISUN 4:25 PM | PHI | A+ | 80% | WAS 24–17 PHI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W17 | DAL @ WASTHU 1:00 PM | DAL | C | 62% | DAL 30–23 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W16 | PHI @ WASSAT 5:00 PM | PHI | B | 70% | PHI 29–18 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W15 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 59% | WAS 29–21 NYG | WIN |
| 2025·W14 | WAS @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 58% | WAS 0–31 MIN | LOSS |
| 2025·W13 | DEN @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | DEN | A+ | 74% | DEN 27–26 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W11 | WAS @ MIASUN 9:30 AM | MIA | B | 68% | WAS 13–16 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W10 | DET @ WASSUN 4:25 PM | DET | B | 66% | DET 44–22 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W9 | SEA @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | SEA | B | 66% | SEA 38–14 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W8 | WAS @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | A | 74% | WAS 7–28 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W7 | WAS @ DALSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | C | 50% | WAS 22–44 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W6 | CHI @ WASMON 8:15 PM | WAS | B | 70% | CHI 25–24 WAS | LOSS |
| 2025·W5 | WAS @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | LAC | B | 63% | WAS 27–10 LAC | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 61% | WAS 27–34 ATL | LOSS |
| 2025·W3 | LV @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 67% | LV 24–41 WAS | WIN |
| 2025·W2 | WAS @ GBTHU 8:15 PM | GB | B | 64% | WAS 18–27 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W1 | NYG @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | A+ | 72% | NYG 6–21 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W18 | WAS @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | C | 60% | WAS 23–19 DAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W17 | ATL @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | WAS | B | 61% | ATL 24–30 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | PHI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | B | 64% | PHI 33–36 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W15 | WAS @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 59% | WAS 20–19 NO | WIN |
| 2024·W13 | TEN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | A | 70% | TEN 19–42 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W12 | DAL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 69% | DAL 34–26 WAS | LOSS |
| 2024·W11 | WAS @ PHITHU 8:15 PM | PHI | B | 66% | WAS 18–26 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W10 | PIT @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 59% | PIT 28–27 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W9 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 67% | WAS 27–22 NYG | WIN |
| 2024·W8 | CHI @ WASSUN 4:25 PM | WAS | C | 58% | CHI 15–18 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W7 | CAR @ WASSUN 4:05 PM | WAS | A | 72% | CAR 7–40 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W6 | WAS @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | A | 71% | WAS 23–30 BAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W5 | CLE @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 63% | CLE 13–34 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W4 | WAS @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ARI | B | 62% | WAS 42–14 ARI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W3 | WAS @ CINMON 8:15 PM | CIN | B | 67% | WAS 38–33 CIN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W2 | NYG @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 50% | NYG 18–21 WAS | WIN |
| 2024·W1 | WAS @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | A+ | 73% | WAS 20–37 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W18 | DAL @ WASSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | A+ | 75% | DAL 38–10 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W17 | SF @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | SF | A+ | 78% | SF 27–10 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W16 | WAS @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 58% | WAS 28–30 NYJ | LOSS |
| 2023·W15 | WAS @ LARSUN 4:05 PM | LAR | B | 69% | WAS 20–28 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W13 | MIA @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | MIA | B | 71% | MIA 45–15 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W12 | WAS @ DALTHU 4:30 PM | DAL | A+ | 79% | WAS 10–45 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W11 | NYG @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 70% | NYG 31–19 WAS | LOSS |
| 2023·W10 | WAS @ SEASUN 4:25 PM | SEA | B | 66% | WAS 26–29 SEA | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W9 | WAS @ NESUN 1:00 PM | NE | C | 59% | WAS 20–17 NE | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | PHI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | A+ | 74% | PHI 38–31 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W7 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 62% | WAS 7–14 NYG | LOSS |
| 2023·W6 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 67% | WAS 24–16 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W5 | CHI @ WASTHU 8:15 PM | WAS | A | 73% | CHI 40–20 WAS | LOSS |
| 2023·W4 | WAS @ PHISUN 1:00 PM | PHI | A+ | 74% | WAS 31–34 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W3 | BUF @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 70% | BUF 37–3 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W2 | WAS @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | WAS | B | 66% | WAS 35–33 DEN | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | ARI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 68% | ARI 16–20 WAS | WIN |
| 2022·W18 | DAL @ WASSUN 4:25 PM | DAL | A | 74% | DAL 6–26 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W17 | CLE @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | CLE | C | 56% | CLE 24–10 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W16 | WAS @ SFSAT 4:05 PM | SF | A | 72% | WAS 20–37 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W15 | NYG @ WASSUN 8:20 PM | WAS | A | 72% | NYG 20–12 WAS | LOSS |
| 2022·W13 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 64% | WAS 20–20 NYG | — |
| 2022·W12 | ATL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 61% | ATL 13–19 WAS | WIN |
| 2022·W11 | WAS @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 68% | WAS 23–10 HOU | WIN |
| 2022·W10 | WAS @ PHIMON 8:15 PM | PHI | A+ | 75% | WAS 32–21 PHI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W9 | MIN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | B | 66% | MIN 20–17 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W8 | WAS @ INDSUN 4:25 PM | IND | C | 59% | WAS 17–16 IND | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W7 | GB @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | GB | B | 70% | GB 21–23 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W6 | WAS @ CHITHU 8:15 PM | CHI | C | 57% | WAS 12–7 CHI | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W5 | TEN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | TEN | B | 69% | TEN 21–17 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W4 | WAS @ DALSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | B | 70% | WAS 10–25 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W3 | PHI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | B | 67% | PHI 24–8 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W2 | WAS @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 64% | WAS 27–36 DET | LOSS |
| 2022·W1 | JAX @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 65% | JAX 22–28 WAS | WIN |
| 2021·W18 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 56% | WAS 22–7 NYG | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | PHI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | B | 62% | PHI 20–16 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W16 | WAS @ DALSUN 8:20 PM | DAL | B | 62% | WAS 14–56 DAL | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W15 | WAS @ PHITUE 7:00 PM | PHI | B | 54% | WAS 17–27 PHI | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W14 | DAL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | B | 52% | DAL 27–20 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W13 | WAS @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | WAS | C | 52% | WAS 17–15 LV | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | SEA @ WASMON 8:15 PM | WAS | C | 53% | SEA 15–17 WAS | WIN |
| 2021·W11 | WAS @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | B | 56% | WAS 27–21 CAR | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W10 | TB @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 68% | TB 19–29 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W8 | WAS @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | WAS | C | 51% | WAS 10–17 DEN | LOSS |
| 2021·W7 | WAS @ GBSUN 1:00 PM | GB | A+ | 70% | WAS 10–24 GB | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W6 | KC @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | KC | B | 57% | KC 31–13 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W5 | NO @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 61% | NO 33–22 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W4 | WAS @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 55% | WAS 34–30 ATL | WIN |
| 2021·W3 | WAS @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | A+ | 65% | WAS 21–43 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W2 | NYG @ WASTHU 8:20 PM | WAS | B | 56% | NYG 29–30 WAS | WIN |
| 2021·W1 | LAC @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | C | 49% | LAC 20–16 WAS | LOSS |
| 2020·W17 | WAS @ PHISUN 8:20 PM | WAS | B | 55% | WAS 20–14 PHI | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | CAR @ WASSUN 4:05 PM | WAS | B | 58% | CAR 20–13 WAS | LOSS |
| 2020·W15 | SEA @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | SEA | C | 54% | SEA 20–15 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W14 | WAS @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | SF | B | 54% | WAS 23–15 SF | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W13 | WAS @ PITMON 5:00 PM | PIT | A+ | 72% | WAS 23–17 PIT | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W12 | WAS @ DALTHU 4:30 PM | DAL | B | 57% | WAS 41–16 DAL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W11 | CIN @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | C | 51% | CIN 9–20 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W10 | WAS @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | C | 54% | WAS 27–30 DET | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W9 | NYG @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | WAS | B | 55% | NYG 23–20 WAS | LOSS |
| 2020·W7 | DAL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | DAL | B | 56% | DAL 3–25 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W6 | WAS @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | NYG | C | 53% | WAS 19–20 NYG | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W5 | LAR @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | S | 66% | LAR 30–10 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W4 | BAL @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | S | 73% | BAL 31–17 WAS | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W3 | WAS @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | CLE | B | 54% | WAS 20–34 CLE | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | WAS @ ARISUN 4:05 PM | ARI | C | 53% | WAS 15–30 ARI | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W1 | PHI @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | A+ | 61% | PHI 17–27 WAS | LOSS (vs) |
