Commanders vs Vikings – Week 16 2026
WAS
MIN
WAS
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Vikings over the Commanders at 78% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: MIN 78%Our line: MIN -10.3
80% range around our line: WAS by 7 to MIN by 28. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the MIN game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -10.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
78%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
55%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
| SPORTSBOOK | WAS | MIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.056Net EPA / play+0.111
-0.015 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (28)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.210 (1)
39.8% (27)Offense success %35.9% (32)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: MIN at 78%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
MIN generates -0.099 EPA/play on offense. WAS's defense allows 0.041. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 10.3-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for MIN. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@MINW14 2025 | WAS 0, MIN 31 | WAS | L |
| MIN@WASW9 2022 | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 78% win probability. The margin models project MIN by 10.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Minnesota Vikings at 78% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, WAS 0, MIN 31 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: WAS -0.056 against MIN +0.111.
