WAS @ MIN – Week 16 2026
WAS
MIN
WAS
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
MIN
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: MIN 69%Projected margin: -4.9
MIN
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.9
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.137Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.005Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.142Defense EPA / play-0.100
45.6%Offense success %42.6%
47.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our early forecast in WAS @ MIN (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 69.1% confidence and projects MIN by 4.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | MIN market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
M.Mariota1695 yd · 10 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Croskey-Merritt805 yd · 8 TD
C.Rodriguez500 yd · 6 TD
M.Mariota297 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
D.Samuel72 rec · 727 yd · 5 TD
T.McLaurin38 rec · 582 yd · 3 TD
Z.Ertz50 rec · 504 yd · 4 TD
J.Lane16 rec · 225 yd · 0 TD
VS
1,695PASSyds1,632
1,602RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@MINW14 2025 | WAS 0, MIN 31 | WAS | L |
| MIN@WASW9 2022 | MIN 20, WAS 17 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs MIN
Who is favored in Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings?
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 69% win probability. The margin models project MIN by 4.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings game?
Minnesota Vikings, 0-31 in Week 14 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Washington Commanders or the Minnesota Vikings?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: WAS -0.137 against MIN -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
