LAC @ MIA – Week 16 2026
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 62%Projected margin: -1.0
LAC
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.024Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.083Defense EPA / play+0.088
43.1%Offense success %41.9%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
LAC is our early forecast in LAC @ MIA (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 61.8% confidence and projects LAC by 1.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | LAC market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds2,660
1,686RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIA
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 62% win probability. The margin models project LAC by 1.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins game?
Los Angeles Chargers, 29-27 in Week 6 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
