Chargers vs Dolphins – Week 16 2026
LAC
MIA
LAC
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Chargers over the Dolphins at 60% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.6
80% range around our line: MIA by 14 to LAC by 21. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the LAC game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.6
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
77%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
| SPORTSBOOK | LAC | MIA | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -375 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.150Net EPA / play-0.224
-0.207 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
-0.057 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
37.8% (29)Offense success %37.6% (30)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
LAC is our early forecast in LAC @ MIA (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 60% confidence and projects LAC by 3.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@MIAW6 2025 | LAC 29, MIA 27 | LAC | W |
| MIA@LACW1 2023 | MIA 36, LAC 34 | LAC | L |
| MIA@LACW14 2022 | MIA 17, LAC 23 | MIA | L |
| LAC@MIAW10 2020 | LAC 21, MIA 29 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs MIA
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability. The margin models project LAC by 3.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 29, MIA 27 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC -0.150 against MIA -0.224.
