SF @ KC – Week 16 2026
SF
KC
SF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
Model confidence: SF 72%Projected margin: -5.4
SF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-5.4
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.088Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.070Defense EPA / play-0.020
48.3%Offense success %44.5%
48.5%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
SF is our early forecast in SF @ KC (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 71.5% confidence and projects SF by 5.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | SF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
B.Purdy2167 yd · 20 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
C.McCaffrey1202 yd · 10 TD
B.Robinson400 yd · 2 TD
B.Purdy147 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.McCaffrey102 rec · 924 yd · 7 TD
J.Jennings55 rec · 643 yd · 9 TD
G.Kittle57 rec · 628 yd · 7 TD
K.Bourne37 rec · 551 yd · 0 TD
VS
2,167PASSyds3,587
1,749RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@SFW7 2024 | KC 28, SF 18 | KC | W |
| KC@SFW7 2022 | KC 44, SF 23 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs KC
Who is favored in San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 72% win probability. The margin models project SF by 5.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs game?
Kansas City Chiefs, 28-18 in Week 7 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the San Francisco 49ers or the Kansas City Chiefs?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: SF +0.018 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
