49ers vs Chiefs – Week 16 2026
SF
KC
SF
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the 49ers over the Chiefs at 67% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: SF 67%Our line: SF -6.1
80% range around our line: KC by 11 to SF by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the SF game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
SF —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.1
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
41%
DIFFERENCE
+26%
| SPORTSBOOK | SF | KC | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | 41.3% |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
Early season: 4 games played for at least one team. These numbers and ranks will move fast.
+0.276Net EPA / play+0.222
+0.209 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.172 (4)
-0.067 (4)Defense EPA / play-0.050 (8)
52.7% (1)Offense success %48.6%
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
SF is our early forecast in SF @ KC (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 67% confidence and projects SF by 6.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@SFW7 2024 | KC 28, SF 18 | KC | W |
| KC@SFW7 2022 | KC 44, SF 23 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs KC
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability. The margin models project SF by 6.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors San Francisco 49ers at 67% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 28, SF 18 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.276 against KC +0.222.
