GB @ CHI – Week 16 2026
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
@
FRI 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CHI 68%Projected margin: -4.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.115Offense EPA / play+0.080
+0.033Defense EPA / play+0.018
47.7%Offense success %45.8%
44.8%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CHI is our B-tier play in GB @ CHI (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 68.1% confidence and projects CHI by 4.2. Market spread sits at CHI -1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
T.Kraft32 rec · 489 yd · 6 TD
M.Golden29 rec · 361 yd · 0 TD
VS
3,381PASSyds3,942
1,624RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | — | CHI | — |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
Who is favored in Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.2. The market has CHI at -1.5.
When do the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, FRI 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears game?
Chicago Bears, 16-22 in Week 16 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Green Bay Packers or the Chicago Bears?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
