Packers vs Bears – Week 16 2026
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
@
FRI 1:00 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bears over the Packers at 66% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CHI 66%Our line: CHI -5.4
80% range around our line: GB by 12 to CHI by 23. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -5.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
52%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
| SPORTSBOOK | GB | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.021 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.039 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
40.7% (24)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
CHI is our early forecast in GB @ CHI (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 66% confidence and projects CHI by 5.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love1408 yd · 10 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
M.Lloyd112 yd · 2 TD
K.Johnson106 yd · 0 TD
C.Brooks70 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Watson26 rec · 474 yd · 6 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| GB@CHIW16 2025 | GB 16, CHI 22 | CHI | W |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 66% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 5.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Chicago Bears at 66% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, FRI 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.018 against CHI +0.008.
