HOU @ PHI – Week 16 2026
HOU
PHI
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 61%Projected margin: -0.9
HOU
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.105
-0.013Offense EPA / play+0.026
-0.131Defense EPA / play-0.079
41.3%Offense success %43.1%
38.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our C-tier play in HOU @ PHI (Week 16, 2026). The model assigns 60.6% confidence and projects HOU by 0.9. Market spread sits at HOU +2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
J.Higgins41 rec · 525 yd · 6 TD
X.Hutchinson35 rec · 428 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,041PASSyds3,224
1,418RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@HOUW9 2022 | PHI 29, HOU 17 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs PHI
Who is favored in Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 0.9. The market has HOU at +2.5.
When do the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles game?
Philadelphia Eagles, 29-17 in Week 9 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Houston Texans or the Philadelphia Eagles?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
