NYG @ DET – Week 16 2026
NYG
DET
NYG
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DET 72%Projected margin: -6.1
DET
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-6.1
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.012Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.087Defense EPA / play-0.010
42.1%Offense success %45.2%
47.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DET at 72%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.081 EPA/play on offense. NYG's defense allows 0.087. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 92% in the red zone vs 73% for NYG. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DET market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
160.8SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Dart2272 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
T.Tracy740 yd · 2 TD
J.Dart487 yd · 9 TD
D.Singletary437 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
W.Robinson92 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
D.Slayton37 rec · 538 yd · 1 TD
T.Johnson45 rec · 528 yd · 5 TD
T.Tracy36 rec · 288 yd · 2 TD
VS
2,272PASSyds4,564
1,664RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@DETW12 2025 | NYG 27, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@NYGW11 2022 | DET 31, NYG 18 | NYG | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DET
Who is favored in New York Giants at Detroit Lions?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 72% win probability. The margin models project DET by 6.1. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New York Giants and Detroit Lions play?
Week 16 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last New York Giants vs Detroit Lions game?
Detroit Lions, 27-34 in Week 12 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the New York Giants or the Detroit Lions?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: NYG -0.075 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
