Giants vs Lions – Week 16 2026
NYG
DET
NYG
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 16 · 2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Giants at 69% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DET 69%Our line: DET -6.7
80% range around our line: NYG by 11 to DET by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -6.7
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SPORTSBOOK | NYG | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 16 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.054Net EPA / play+0.029
-0.019 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
+0.036 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
42.1% (20)Offense success %49.1% (4)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors DET at 69%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 93% in the red zone vs 70% for NYG. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.4 for NYG. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NYG
I.Likely
TE
85.4 SEASON PPR
M.Nabers
WR
73.9 SEASON PPR
J.Winston
QB
52.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
J.Winston805 yd · 6 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
M.Nabers29 rec · 329 yd · 2 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@DETW12 2025 | NYG 27, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@NYGW11 2022 | DET 31, NYG 18 | NYG | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 69% win probability. The margin models project DET by 6.7. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 69% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 16 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Detroit Lions, NYG 27, DET 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: NYG -0.054 against DET +0.029.
