DET @ NYG – Week 11 2022
DET
NYG
DET
AWAY
31@18
DET BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 61%Our line: NYG -3.9
NYG
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.9
OUR LINE
-159
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.072Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.078Defense EPA / play+0.046
45.6%Offense success %44.9%
46.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but DET won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 16.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +143 | -159 |
| Our fair price | +159 | -159 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
21 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3 SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6 SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff4438 yd · 29 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jamaal Williams1066 yd · 17 TD
D'Andre Swift542 yd · 5 TD
Justin Jackson170 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown106 rec · 1161 yd · 6 TD
Kalif Raymond47 rec · 616 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@DETW12 2025 | NYG 27, DET 34 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 3.9. The market has NYG at -3.0.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, NYG 27, DET 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against NYG -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
