Lions vs Giants – Week 11 2022
DET
NYG
DET
AWAY
31@18
DET BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 31, New York Giants 18.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: NYG 61%Our line: NYG -3.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -3.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.072 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (9)
+0.078 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.046 (28)
45.6% (9)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but DET won. Projected margin was 3.9, the model overestimated by 16.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
21 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@DETW12 2025 | NYG 27, DET 34 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 3.9. The market has NYG at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 31, NYG 18. Our model had favored New York Giants at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Giants at -3.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.8 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, NYG 27, DET 34 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against NYG -0.016.
