Raiders vs Broncos – Week 11 2022
LV
DEN
LV
AWAY
22@16
LV BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 22, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 50%Our line: DEN +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.060
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
43.1% (21)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 0.0. The market has DEN at -2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 22, DEN 16. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at -2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the Denver Broncos were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 6.7 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: LV -0.064 against DEN -0.060.
