2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LAC – Week 11 2022
KC
LAC
KC
AWAY
30@27
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 66%Projected margin: -4.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -231 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
196.3SEASON PPR
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES