49ers vs Cardinals – Week 11 2022
SF
ARI
SF
AWAY
38@10
SF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 38, Arizona Cardinals 10.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 49ers, 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: SF 64%Our line: SF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.104
+0.085 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
-0.126 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
46.2% (6)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 28. Off by 23.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@SFW3 2026 | ARI 30, SF 36 | SF | W |
| SF@ARIW11 2025 | SF 41, ARI 22 | SF | W |
| ARI@SFW3 2025 | ARI 15, SF 16 | ARI | L |
| SF@ARIW18 2024 | SF 24, ARI 47 | ARI | W |
| ARI@SFW5 2024 | ARI 24, SF 23 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs ARI
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.8. The market has SF at -10.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 38, ARI 10. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -10.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 11, the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 3.3 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ARI 30, SF 36 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against ARI -0.104.
