Bears vs Falcons – Week 11 2022
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
24@27
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 24, Atlanta Falcons 27.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 61%Our line: ATL -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -3.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
40.5% (27)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 3.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@ATLW6 2026 | CHI 31, ATL 23 | ATL | L |
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 3.7. The market has ATL at -3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, CHI 24, ATL 27. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -3.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.6 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 31, ATL 23 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Atlanta Falcons: CHI -0.164 against ATL -0.075.
