2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ ATL – Week 11 2022
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
24@27
ATL +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ATL
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: ATL 61%Projected margin: 2.2
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
2.2
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 2.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ATL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -138 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3SEASON PPR
ATL
Marcus Mariota
QB
196.6SEASON PPR
Drake London
WR
178.6SEASON PPR
Tyler Allgeier
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES