CHI @ ATL – Week 11 2022
CHI
ATL
CHI
AWAY
24@27
ATL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 61%Our line: ATL -3.7
ATL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-156
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.046Offense EPA / play+0.005
+0.118Defense EPA / play+0.080
40.5%Offense success %45.5%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 3.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +125 | -138 |
| Our fair price | +156 | -156 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0 SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7 SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Justin Fields2242 yd · 17 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Justin Fields1143 yd · 8 TD
David Montgomery801 yd · 5 TD
Khalil Herbert731 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Cole Kmet50 rec · 544 yd · 7 TD
Darnell Mooney40 rec · 493 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHIW17 2023 | ATL 17, CHI 37 | CHI | W |
| CHI@ATLW3 2020 | CHI 30, ATL 26 | CHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs ATL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 3.7. The market has ATL at -3.0.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, ATL 17, CHI 37 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Atlanta Falcons: CHI -0.164 against ATL -0.075.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
