PHI @ IND – Week 11 2022
PHI
IND
PHI
AWAY
17@16
PHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 68%Our line: PHI -6.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-215
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.172Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.107Offense EPA / play-0.168
-0.064Defense EPA / play-0.027
48.3%Offense success %39.8%
43.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 1. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -270 | +235 |
| Our fair price | -215 | +215 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
378.0 SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
299.6 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
256.6 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3701 yd · 22 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Miles Sanders1269 yd · 11 TD
Jalen Hurts760 yd · 13 TD
Kenneth Gainwell240 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
A.J. Brown88 rec · 1496 yd · 11 TD
DeVonta Smith95 rec · 1196 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs IND
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.4. The market has PHI at -6.5.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 45.5.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.172 against IND -0.141.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
