Eagles vs Colts – Week 11 2022
PHI
IND
PHI
AWAY
17@16
PHI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 17, Indianapolis Colts 16.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: PHI 68%Our line: PHI -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.172Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.107 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
-0.064 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
48.3% (3)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 1. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Road Favorite 2-5 ATS (29%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs IND
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.4. The market has PHI at -6.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 17, IND 16. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 11, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 1.6 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.172 against IND -0.141.
