Cowboys vs Vikings – Week 11 2022
DAL
MIN
DAL
AWAY
40@3
DAL BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 11
2022 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 40, Minnesota Vikings 3.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 57%Our line: MIN -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -2.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.023
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.011 (19)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (21)
44.6% (15)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DAL won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 39.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 35.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DALW15 2025 | MIN 34, DAL 26 | DAL | L |
| DAL@MINW8 2021 | DAL 20, MIN 16 | DAL | W |
| DAL@MINW11 2020 | DAL 31, MIN 28 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIN by 2.5. The market has MIN at +1.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 40, MIN 3. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +1.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 11, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.5 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 34, DAL 26 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against MIN -0.023.
