Cowboys vs Vikings – Week 8 2021
DAL
MIN
DAL
AWAY
20@16
DAL BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, Minnesota Vikings 16.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: DAL 54%Our line: DAL -1.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -1.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.187Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.096 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.017 (16)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (12)
47.0% (7)Offense success %41.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DAL by 1.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DALW15 2025 | MIN 34, DAL 26 | DAL | L |
| DAL@MINW11 2022 | DAL 40, MIN 3 | MIN | L |
| DAL@MINW11 2020 | DAL 31, MIN 28 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs MIN
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 1.4. The market has DAL at +4.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 20, MIN 16. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +4.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 8, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 3.0 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 34, DAL 26 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.187 against MIN +0.035.
