CIN @ NYJ – Week 8 2021
CIN
NYJ
CIN
AWAY
31@34
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 69%Our line: CIN -6.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
-11.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.8
OUR LINE
-225
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.057Offense EPA / play-0.092
-0.012Defense EPA / play+0.128
44.2%Offense success %41.6%
44.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -510 | +411 |
| Our fair price | -225 | +225 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -11.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4611 yd · 34 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon1205 yd · 13 TD
Samaje Perine246 yd · 1 TD
Joe Burrow118 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase81 rec · 1455 yd · 13 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1091 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CINW8 2025 | NYJ 39, CIN 38 | CIN | L |
| CIN@NYJW3 2022 | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.8. The market has CIN at -11.5.
The model projects 48.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 39, CIN 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against NYJ -0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
