Bengals vs Jets – Week 8 2021
CIN
NYJ
CIN
AWAY
31@34
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 31, New York Jets 34.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 5 Jets.
Model confidence: CIN 69%Our line: CIN -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -6.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.069Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.057 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.092 (27)
-0.012 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.128 (32)
44.2% (17)Offense success %41.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.8, the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CINW8 2025 | NYJ 39, CIN 38 | CIN | L |
| CIN@NYJW3 2022 | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NYJ
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CIN by 6.8. The market has CIN at -11.5.
New York Jets won, CIN 31, NYJ 34. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -11.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 8, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 4.9 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 39, CIN 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.069 against NYJ -0.220.
