2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ NYJ – Week 8 2021
CIN
NYJ
CIN
AWAY
31@34
NYJ +3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: CIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CIN 69%Projected margin: -8.8
CIN
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
-8.8
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but NYJ won. Projected margin was 8.8 -- the model overestimated by 11.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | CIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -510 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
314.2SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
304.6SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
287.9SEASON PPR
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@CINW8 2025 | NYJ 39, CIN 38 | CIN | L |
| CIN@NYJW3 2022 | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | CIN | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES