Steelers vs Browns – Week 8 2021
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
15@10
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 15, Cleveland Browns 10.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 53%Our line: CLE -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -0.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.074 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.016 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
39.1% (31)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.9. The market has CLE at -5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 15, CLE 10. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 53% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -5.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 8, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 4.6 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: PIT -0.090 against CLE +0.012.
