PIT @ CLE – Week 8 2021
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
15@10
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 53%Our line: CLE -0.9
CLE
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.9
OUR LINE
-111
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.090Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.074Offense EPA / play+0.013
+0.016Defense EPA / play+0.001
39.1%Offense success %43.9%
43.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.9, the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +196 | -222 |
| Our fair price | +111 | -111 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
53%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4 SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3740 yd · 22 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Najee Harris1200 yd · 7 TD
Benny Snell98 yd · 0 TD
Chase Claypool96 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson107 rec · 1161 yd · 8 TD
Chase Claypool59 rec · 860 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.9. The market has CLE at -5.5.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 6, CLE 13 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: PIT -0.090 against CLE +0.012.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
