2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ CLE – Week 8 2021
PIT
CLE
PIT
AWAY
15@10
PIT +5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 53%Projected margin: 2.7
CLE
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
2.7
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -222 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
13 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
218.1SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES