Jaguars vs Seahawks – Week 8 2021
JAX
SEA
JAX
AWAY
7@31
SEA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 7, Seattle Seahawks 31.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 65%Our line: SEA -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.088 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
+0.118 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
44.0% (18)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 24. Off by 19.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@JAXW6 2025 | SEA 20, JAX 12 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.0. The market has SEA at -4.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, JAX 7, SEA 31. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -4.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 8, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 3.1 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 20, JAX 12 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: JAX -0.206 against SEA +0.003.
