JAX @ SEA – Week 8 2021
JAX
SEA
JAX
AWAY
7@31
SEA BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 65%Our line: SEA -5.0
SEA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-182
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.206Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.031
+0.118Defense EPA / play+0.028
44.0%Offense success %43.2%
47.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 24. Off by 19.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +171 | -192 |
| Our fair price | +182 | -182 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2 SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
173.9 SEASON PPR
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Trevor Lawrence3641 yd · 12 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson767 yd · 8 TD
Trevor Lawrence334 yd · 2 TD
Carlos Hyde253 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones73 rec · 832 yd · 4 TD
Laviska Shenault Jr.63 rec · 619 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@JAXW6 2025 | SEA 20, JAX 12 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs SEA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 5.0. The market has SEA at -4.0.
The model projects 47.1 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 20, JAX 12 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Seattle Seahawks: JAX -0.206 against SEA +0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
