Seahawks vs Jaguars – Week 6 2025
SEA
JAX
SEA
AWAY
20@12
SEA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 12.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Seahawks, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 60%Our line: JAX -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.150Net EPA / play+0.136
+0.033 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
-0.117 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
46.3% (7)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but SEA won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 11.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@SEAW8 2021 | JAX 7, SEA 31 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.3. The market has JAX at +1.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 20, JAX 12. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at +1.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 6, the Seattle Seahawks were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.2 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, JAX 7, SEA 31 in Week 8 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against JAX +0.136.
