2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SEA @ JAX – Week 6 2025
SEA
JAX
SEA
AWAY
20@12
SEA +8
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 60%Projected margin: 1.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
1.2
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but SEA won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
191.9SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@SEAW8 2021 | JAX 7, SEA 31 | SEA | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES