2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ NYJ – Week 6 2025
DEN
NYJ
DEN
AWAY
13@11
DEN +2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 74%Projected margin: -6.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-6.7
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 6.7. Actual: 2. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
304.8SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
219.7SEASON PPR
R.Harvey
RB
206.6SEASON PPR
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES