Broncos vs Jets – Week 6 2025
DEN
NYJ
DEN
AWAY
13@11
DEN BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 6
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 13, New York Jets 11.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: DEN 74%Our line: DEN -8.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -8.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.274
+0.050 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.127 (29)
-0.088 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.147 (31)
44.2% (16)Offense success %40.7% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 8.5. Actual: 2. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NYJ
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DEN by 8.5. The market has DEN at -7.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 13, NYJ 11. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -7.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 6, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 2.3 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2025 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 10, NYJ 9 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against NYJ -0.274.
