Jets vs Broncos – Week 7 2022
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
16@9
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 16, Denver Broncos 9.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: NYJ 62%Our line: NYJ -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.036Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.087 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
39.0% (30)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYJ by 4.1. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson1688 yd · 6 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DEN
Our model takes New York Jets at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYJ by 4.1. The market has NYJ at -2.0.
New York Jets won, NYJ 16, DEN 9. Our model had favored New York Jets at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Jets at -2.0, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 7, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 9.5 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.036 against DEN -0.060.
