NYG @ JAX – Week 7 2022
NYG
JAX
NYG
AWAY
23@17
NYG BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 62%Our line: NYG -4.1
NYG
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.1
OUR LINE
-163
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.030Offense EPA / play+0.046
+0.046Defense EPA / play-0.021
44.9%Offense success %46.3%
43.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 4.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYG | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +148 | -165 |
| Our fair price | -163 | +163 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
39%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
289.0 SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
284.0 SEASON PPR
Richie James
WR
138.5 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York GiantsPASSING
Daniel Jones3205 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Saquon Barkley1312 yd · 10 TD
Daniel Jones708 yd · 7 TD
Matt Breida220 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Darius Slayton46 rec · 724 yd · 2 TD
Richie James57 rec · 569 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 4.1. The market has NYG at +3.0.
The model projects 47.6 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NYG -0.016 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
