Giants vs Jaguars – Week 7 2022
NYG
JAX
NYG
AWAY
23@17
NYG BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 17.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Giants, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: NYG 62%Our line: NYG -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.067
+0.030 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
+0.046 (28)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
44.9% (14)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 4.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs JAX
Our model takes New York Giants at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 4.1. The market has NYG at +3.0.
New York Giants won, NYG 23, JAX 17. Our model had favored New York Giants at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Giants at +3.0, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 7, the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NYG -0.016 against JAX +0.067.
