Falcons vs Bengals – Week 7 2022
ATL
CIN
ATL
AWAY
17@35
CIN BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, Cincinnati Bengals 35.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons, 4 Bengals.
Model confidence: CIN 58%Our line: CIN -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.125
+0.005 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.077 (5)
+0.080 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.048 (10)
45.5% (10)Offense success %47.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CIN. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 18. Off by 15.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 2.9. The market has CIN at -6.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, ATL 17, CIN 35. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -6.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 7, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: ATL -0.075 against CIN +0.125.
