Packers vs Commanders – Week 7 2022
GB
WAS
GB
AWAY
21@23
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 21, Washington Commanders 23.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 5 Commanders.
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.003
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play-0.078 (26)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.075 (4)
45.8% (7)Offense success %40.4% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but WAS won. Projected margin was 7.2, the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
WAS
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@GBW2 2025 | WAS 18, GB 27 | GB | W |
| WAS@GBW7 2021 | WAS 10, GB 24 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs WAS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 7.2. The market has GB at -4.0.
Washington Commanders won, GB 21, WAS 23. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -4.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 7, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 5.4 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, WAS 18, GB 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Washington Commanders: GB -0.034 against WAS -0.003.
