2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ TEN – Week 7 2022
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
10@19
TEN +9
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TEN 62%Projected margin: 2.9
TEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 9. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -143 | Won · +$0.70 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1SEASON PPR
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES