IND @ TEN – Week 7 2022
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
10@19
TEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 62%Our line: TEN -4.2
TEN
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-164
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.168Offense EPA / play-0.059
-0.027Defense EPA / play+0.004
39.8%Offense success %41.1%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 4.2. Actual: 9. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +129 | -143 |
| Our fair price | +164 | -164 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.70
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
57%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3 SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
149.1 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Matt Ryan3057 yd · 14 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor861 yd · 4 TD
Zack Moss365 yd · 1 TD
Deon Jackson236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Michael Pittman99 rec · 925 yd · 4 TD
Parris Campbell63 rec · 623 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 4.2. The market has TEN at -2.5.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, TEN 14, IND 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tennessee Titans: IND -0.141 against TEN -0.064.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
