IND @ TEN – Week 6 2024
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
20@17
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: IND 62%Our line: IND -4.2
IND
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.146
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.116
+0.004Defense EPA / play+0.030
40.2%Offense success %39.9%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -135 |
| Our fair price | -165 | +165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW5 2023 | TEN 16, IND 23 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 4.2. The market has IND at +2.5.
The model projects 44.0 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, TEN 14, IND 38 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against TEN -0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
