2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ TEN – Week 6 2024
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
20@17
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 62%Projected margin: -1.8
IND
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-1.8
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 1.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW5 2023 | TEN 16, IND 23 | IND | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES