CIN @ NYG – Week 6 2024
CIN
NYG
CIN
AWAY
17@7
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 50%Our line: NYG +0.0
NYG
PICK SIDE
+4.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.090Offense EPA / play-0.107
+0.037Defense EPA / play+0.063
47.2%Offense success %40.5%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -230 | +190 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG +4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
33%
DIFFERENCE
+17%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0 SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow4918 yd · 43 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown990 yd · 7 TD
Z.Moss242 yd · 2 TD
J.Burrow201 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase127 rec · 1708 yd · 17 TD
T.Higgins73 rec · 911 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CINW12 2020 | NYG 19, CIN 17 | NYG | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 0.0. The market has NYG at +4.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 19, CIN 17 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
