Bengals vs Giants – Week 6 2024
CIN
NYG
CIN
AWAY
17@7
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 17, New York Giants 7.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: NYG 50%Our line: NYG +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.170
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
47.2% (9)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NYG but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CINW12 2020 | NYG 19, CIN 17 | NYG | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CIN by 0.0. The market has NYG at +4.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 17, NYG 7. Our model had favored New York Giants at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New York Giants at +4.5, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 6, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 19, CIN 17 in Week 12 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against NYG -0.170.
