2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ NO – Week 6 2024
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
51@27
TB +24
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 62%Projected margin: 2.4
NO
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
2.4
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but TB won. Projected margin was 2.4 -- the model overestimated by 26.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +145 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES