Buccaneers vs Saints – Week 6 2024
TB
NO
TB
AWAY
51@27
TB BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51, New Orleans Saints 27.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Buccaneers, 5 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 62%Our line: NO -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.115Net EPA / play-0.101
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
49.5% (3)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but TB won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 28.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW4 2023 | TB 26, NO 9 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 4.1. The market has NO at +3.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 51, NO 27. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +3.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.115 against NO -0.101.
