Browns vs Eagles – Week 6 2024
CLE
PHI
CLE
AWAY
16@20
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 16, Philadelphia Eagles 20.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Browns.
Model confidence: PHI 72%Our line: PHI -7.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.201Net EPA / play+0.212
-0.183 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
+0.017 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
37.0% (32)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 7.8. Actual: 4. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@CLEW11 2020 | PHI 17, CLE 22 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.8. The market has PHI at -8.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, CLE 16, PHI 20. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -8.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 6, the Cleveland Browns were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 2.8 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PHI 17, CLE 22 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: CLE -0.201 against PHI +0.212.
