49ers vs Seahawks – Week 6 2024
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
36@24
SF BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 36, Seattle Seahawks 24.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.028Net EPA / play-0.018
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
46.1% (11)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 12. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 3.3. The market has SF at -3.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 36, SEA 24. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 3.6 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.028 against SEA -0.018.
