2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ SEA – Week 6 2024
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
36@24
SF +12
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER C
PICK: SF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: SF 60%Projected margin: -0.7
SF
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 12. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -198 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
SEA
G.Smith
QB
266.0SEASON PPR
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
253.0SEASON PPR
D.Metcalf
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
| SF@SEAW12 2023 | SF 31, SEA 13 | SF | W |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES