ARI @ GB · Week 6 2024

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

ARI

ARI

AWAY

13@34

GB +21

FINAL · WEEK 6

2024 SEASON

HOME

TIER A

PICK: GB

PICK WONATS ✓

GB 70%

30%

Model confidence: GB 70%

Projected margin: 6.4

PICK SIDE

-5.5

SPREAD

6.4

PROJ MARGIN

-221

MODEL ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON

ARI	METRIC	GB
+0.011	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.132
+0.067	OFF EPA/PLAY	+0.071
+0.056	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.061
400	POINTS FOR	470
379	POINTS AGAINST	360
55.5%	PASS RATE	49.4%
76.2%	RED ZONE TD%	91.3%
17.5%	4TH DOWN GO%	15.1%

ARI ANALYTICS →GB ANALYTICS →

GAME NARRATIVE

GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

CORRECT

Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 21. Off by 14.6 points but directionally right.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.

Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

FIELD	VALUE	NOTES
SPREAD	-5.5	GB market line
MODEL ML	-221	Our fair-value moneyline
LIVE ML	—	Last observed market ML
RESULT	-238	Won · +$0.45

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

45.8

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

ARI

divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)

GB

road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

50°F

WIND

4 MPH

WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON

ARI

K.Murray

QB

297.2SEASON PPR

J.Conner

RB

253.8SEASON PPR

T.McBride

TE

243.8SEASON PPR

GB

J.Jacobs

RB

293.1SEASON PPR

J.Love

QB

233.9SEASON PPR

J.Reed

WR

INJURY REPORTWEEK 6

ARI6 LISTED

Zay Jones

WR · Not injury related - other

OUT

Darius Robinson

DT · Calf

OUT

Matt Prater

K · Left Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Kelvin Beachum

T · Hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

Garrett Williams

CB · Groin

QUESTIONABLE

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
GB@ARIW7 2025	GB 27, ARI 23	GB	W
GB@ARIW8 2021	GB 24, ARI 21	GB	W

FULL COMPARISON →

ARI ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

GB ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

COMPARE

WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES

CLE@PHI

16-20

WAS@BAL

23-30

ATL@CAR

38-20

HOU@NE

41-21

BUF@NYJ

23-20

LAC@DEN

23-16

JAX@CHI

16-35

← WEEK 6 PICKS FULL RESULTS LEDGER →

HOME TEAM WIN PROBABILITY OVER GAME TIME · SOURCE: NFLFASTR

Christian Jones

T · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

GB6 LISTED

Devonte Wyatt

DT · Ankle

OUT

Jaire Alexander

CB · Groin

QUESTIONABLE

Rasheed Walker

T · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Arron Mosby

DE · Shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

Christian Watson

WR · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

Jordan Morgan

T · Shoulder

QUESTIONABLE

ARI SCHEME RATES

17 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

31.4%

BLITZ RATE

23.1%

MOTION

28.8%

RPO

1.1%

SCREEN

8.3%

NO HUDDLE

8.6%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.0

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2024 SEASON

GB SCHEME RATES

18 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

26.5%

BLITZ RATE

18.6%

MOTION

49.8%

RPO

6.5%

SCREEN

13.0%

NO HUDDLE

7.9%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.2

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2024 SEASON

ARI ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

11.2%

DROP %

3.4%

PRESSURE %

14.2%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

3.5

YAC/ATT

2.3

BROKEN TACKLES

33

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

76.3%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

92.0

MISSED TACKLE %

11.0%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2024 SEASON

NEXT GEN STATS

EXP COMP %

76.4%

Kyler MurrayARI

TIME TO THROW

2.57s

Kyler MurrayARI

SEPARATION

6.4 yds

Jayden ReedGB

RUSH EFFICIENCY

4.4

Josh JacobsGB

AGGRESSIVENESS

18.8%

Kyler MurrayARI

AVG YAC

9.7 yds

Greg DortchARI

GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE

SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS

GB ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

19.9%

DROP %

6.2%

PRESSURE %

22.5%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

2.9

YAC/ATT

2.2

BROKEN TACKLES

64

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

67.2%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

84.2

MISSED TACKLE %

10.0%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2024 SEASON

ARI @ GB – Week 6 2024