Cardinals vs Packers – Week 6 2024
ARI
GB
ARI
AWAY
13@34
GB BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 6
2024 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 13, Green Bay Packers 34.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.011Net EPA / play+0.146
+0.067 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (8)
+0.056 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.067 (4)
47.3% (8)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 21. Off by 13.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
K.Murray3851 yd · 21 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Conner1094 yd · 8 TD
K.Murray572 yd · 5 TD
T.Benson291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride111 rec · 1146 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@ARIW7 2025 | GB 27, ARI 23 | GB | W |
| GB@ARIW8 2021 | GB 24, ARI 21 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project GB by 7.1. The market has GB at -5.5.
Green Bay Packers won, ARI 13, GB 34. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.2 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 27, ARI 23 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: ARI +0.011 against GB +0.146.
