GB @ ARI · Week 7 2025

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

ARI

AWAY

27@23

GB +4

FINAL · WEEK 7

2025 SEASON

ARI

HOME

TIER B

PICK: GB

PICK WONATS ✗

GB 65%

35%

Model confidence: GB 65%

Projected margin: -2.6

PICK SIDE

-7.0

SPREAD

-2.6

PROJ MARGIN

-274

MODEL ML

—

LIVE ML

MISSED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON

GB	METRIC	ARI
+0.082	NET EPA/PLAY	-0.107
+0.115	OFF EPA/PLAY	-0.018
+0.033	DEF EPA/PLAY	+0.088
391	POINTS FOR	355
360	POINTS AGAINST	488
52.3%	PASS RATE	66.1%
79.0%	RED ZONE TD%	78.3%
24.5%	4TH DOWN GO%	23.9%

GB ANALYTICS →ARI ANALYTICS →

GAME NARRATIVE

GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

NAILED IT

Model projected GB by 2.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.

INSTANT CLASSIC

The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.

ATS MISS

Missed the spread by 3.0 points.

Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

FIELD	VALUE	NOTES
SPREAD	-7.0	GB market line
MODEL ML	-274	Our fair-value moneyline
LIVE ML	—	Last observed market ML
RESULT	—	Won · +$0.36

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

45.5

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

GB

Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)

ARI

Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

DOME

CLIMATE CONTROLLED

WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON

GB

J.Jacobs

RB

237.1SEASON PPR

J.Love

QB

235.1SEASON PPR

R.Doubs

WR

165.4SEASON PPR

ARI

T.McBride

TE

315.9SEASON PPR

J.Brissett

QB

227.4SEASON PPR

Mi.Wilson

WR

INJURY REPORTWEEK 7

GB11 LISTED

Devonte Wyatt

DT · Knee

OUT

Christian Watson

WR · Knee

OUT

Lukas Van Ness

DE · Foot

OUT

Brandon McManus

K · Quadricep

QUESTIONABLE

Keisean Nixon

CB · Illness

QUESTIONABLE

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
ARI@GBW6 2024	ARI 13, GB 34	GB	W
GB@ARIW8 2021	GB 24, ARI 21	GB	W

FULL COMPARISON →

GB ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

ARI ANALYTICS

EPA, coaching, picks

COMPARE

WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES

NYG@DEN

32-33

LV@KC

0-31

CAR@NYJ

13-6

NE@TEN

31-13

HOU@SEA

19-27

NO@CHI

14-26

TB@DET

9-24

← WEEK 7 PICKS FULL RESULTS LEDGER →

HOME TEAM WIN PROBABILITY OVER GAME TIME · SOURCE: NFLFASTR

Josh Jacobs

RB · Illness

QUESTIONABLE

Nate Hobbs

CB · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Zach Tom

T · Oblique

QUESTIONABLE

Dontayvion Wicks

WR · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

Jacob Monk

C · Hamstring

QUESTIONABLE

Anthony Belton

T · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

ARI7 LISTED

Emari Demercado

RB · Ankle

OUT

Walter Nolen

DT · Calf

OUT

Zay Jones

WR · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Will Hernandez

G · Knee

QUESTIONABLE

Kyler Murray

QB · Foot

QUESTIONABLE

Darius Robinson

DT · Pectoral

QUESTIONABLE

Kitan Crawford

S · Ankle

QUESTIONABLE

NEXT GEN STATS

EXP COMP %

66.4%

Jordan LoveGB

TIME TO THROW

2.91s

Jacoby BrissettARI

SEPARATION

3.5 yds

Tucker KraftGB

RUSH EFFICIENCY

3.7

Josh JacobsGB

AGGRESSIVENESS

13.8%

Jordan LoveGB

AVG YAC

6.6 yds

Tucker KraftGB

GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE

SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS

GB SCHEME RATES

18 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

29.7%

BLITZ RATE

21.0%

MOTION

43.4%

RPO

7.8%

SCREEN

7.8%

NO HUDDLE

7.3%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.2

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON

GB ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

13.2%

DROP %

3.7%

PRESSURE %

21.1%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

3.0

YAC/ATT

1.4

BROKEN TACKLES

27

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

66.4%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

83.9

MISSED TACKLE %

7.9%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

ARI SCHEME RATES

17 GAMES

PLAY ACTION

28.0%

BLITZ RATE

29.8%

MOTION

35.5%

RPO

2.1%

SCREEN

9.4%

NO HUDDLE

9.9%

AVG PASS RUSHERS

4.3

SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON

ARI ADVANCED STATS

PASSING

BAD THROW %

23.3%

DROP %

2.1%

PRESSURE %

19.8%

RUSHING

YBC/ATT

2.7

YAC/ATT

1.7

BROKEN TACKLES

22

DEFENSE

COMP% ALLOWED

71.4%

PASSER RTG ALLOWED

89.8

MISSED TACKLE %

10.5%

SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON

GB @ ARI – Week 7 2025