Packers vs Cardinals – Week 7 2025
GB
ARI
GB
AWAY
27@23
GB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.107
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (23)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (27)
47.7% (5)Offense success %43.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 5.1. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@GBW6 2024 | ARI 13, GB 34 | GB | W |
| GB@ARIW8 2021 | GB 24, ARI 21 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs ARI
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.1. The market has GB at -7.0.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 27, ARI 23. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, ARI 13, GB 34 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against ARI -0.107.
