Patriots vs Titans – Week 7 2025
NE
TEN
NE
AWAY
31@13
NE BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 31, Tennessee Titans 13.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Titans.
Model confidence: NE 70%Our line: NE -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -6.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.205Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.158 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.047 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
48.4% (3)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 6.9. Actual: 18. Off by 11.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
HIGH WIND
18 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
18 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@TENW9 2024 | NE 17, TEN 20 | TEN | W |
| TEN@NEW12 2021 | TEN 13, NE 36 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs TEN
Our model takes New England Patriots at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 6.9. The market has NE at -6.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 31, TEN 13. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -6.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 7, the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, NE 17, TEN 20 in Week 9 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.205 against TEN -0.260.
