NO @ CHI – Week 7 2025
NO
CHI
NO
AWAY
14@26
CHI BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 66%Our line: CHI -5.6
CHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.6
OUR LINE
-196
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.088Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.059Defense EPA / play+0.018
42.0%Offense success %45.8%
41.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 12. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +185 | -225 |
| Our fair price | +196 | -196 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
66%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9 SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
158.0 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
T.Shough2384 yd · 10 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara471 yd · 1 TD
D.Neal206 yd · 2 TD
A.Estime198 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
C.Olave100 rec · 1163 yd · 9 TD
J.Johnson77 rec · 889 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@NOW9 2023 | CHI 17, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NO@CHIW8 2020 | NO 26, CHI 23 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 5.6. The market has CHI at -4.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CHI 17, NO 24 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: NO -0.029 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
