Buccaneers vs Lions – Week 7 2025
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
9@24
DET BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 7
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9, Detroit Lions 24.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.009 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
+0.013 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
42.4% (24)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 15. Off by 9.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW2 2024 | TB 20, DET 16 | DET | L |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.2. The market has DET at -6.0.
Detroit Lions won, TB 9, DET 24. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -6.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 7, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 7.8 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2025 season, MON 7:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 20, DET 16 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: TB -0.022 against DET +0.091.
