Buccaneers vs Lions – Week 2 2024
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
20@16
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Detroit Lions 16.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Buccaneers, 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
77%
DIFFERENCE
-12%
| SOURCE | TB | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 | 76.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.115Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.130 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
+0.015 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
49.5% (3)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but TB won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.3. The market has DET at -7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 20, DET 16. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TB 9, DET 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: TB +0.115 against DET +0.232.
