TB @ DET – Week 2 2024
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
20@16
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 65%Our line: DET -5.3
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.3
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.115Net EPA / play+0.232
+0.130Offense EPA / play+0.170
+0.015Defense EPA / play-0.062
49.5%Offense success %50.1%
44.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but TB won. Projected margin was 5.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 |
| Our fair price | +189 | -189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8 SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4 SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield4500 yd · 41 TD · 16 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving1122 yd · 8 TD
R.White613 yd · 3 TD
B.Mayfield378 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
M.Evans74 rec · 1004 yd · 11 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 600 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.3. The market has DET at -7.5.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TB 9, DET 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: TB +0.115 against DET +0.232.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
