2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ DET – Week 2 2024
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
20@16
TB +4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 65%Projected margin: 3.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. TB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but TB won. Projected margin was 3.7 -- the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 15 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -375 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
365.8SEASON PPR
B.Irving
RB
244.4SEASON PPR
M.Evans
WR
240.4SEASON PPR
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW16 2020 | TB 47, DET 7 | TB | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES