Saints vs Cowboys – Week 2 2024
NO
DAL
NO
AWAY
44@19
NO BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 44, Dallas Cowboys 19.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 63%Our line: DAL -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
DAL · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
72%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
| SOURCE | NO | DAL | DAL WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +235 | -290 | 72.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.101Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.057 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
+0.044 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
40.6% (23)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but NO won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 29.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NOW13 2021 | DAL 27, NO 17 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.5. The market has DAL at -6.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 44, DAL 19. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -6.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 27, NO 17 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.101 against DAL -0.192.
