NO @ DAL – Week 2 2024
NO
DAL
NO
AWAY
44@19
NO BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 63%Our line: DAL -4.5
DAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.5
OUR LINE
-170
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.101Net EPA / play-0.192
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.109
+0.044Defense EPA / play+0.083
40.6%Offense success %40.6%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but NO won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 29.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +235 | -290 |
| Our fair price | +170 | -170 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
71%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3 SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
D.Carr2145 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara950 yd · 6 TD
J.Williams164 yd · 1 TD
K.Miller148 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Johnson50 rec · 548 yd · 3 TD
A.Kamara68 rec · 543 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NOW13 2021 | DAL 27, NO 17 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.5. The market has DAL at -6.5.
Week 2 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 27, NO 17 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.101 against DAL -0.192.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
