2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ DAL – Week 2 2024
NO
DAL
NO
AWAY
44@19
NO +25
FINAL · WEEK 2
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 63%Projected margin: 2.8
DAL
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but NO won. Projected margin was 2.8 -- the model overestimated by 27.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -290 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@NOW13 2021 | DAL 27, NO 17 | NO | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES